BTER Admit Card 2017

The growth of the EPS is critical in understanding the current valuation of Adecoagro S.A.. The EPS growth rate, as it is typically called, is usually expressed as a percentage, which at this time is hard to estimate, but revenue growth has been -8.90 % over the last twelve months. The long-term trend in EPS shows how well the management of Adecoagro S.A. is adding value for shareholders.



Adecoagro S.A. trades as part of the consumer packaged goods industry and trades as part of the consumer defensive sector. The company CEO is Mariano Bosch. Adecoagro SA is an agricultural company in South America, with operations in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. It is engaged in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, sugar, ethanol and energy production and land transformation.

Previous Intraday Performance:

The AGRO shares had a previous change of -0.29% which opened at 6.96 and closed at 6.98. It moved to an intraday high of 7.04 and a low of 6.93.

SeekingAlpha:  Adecoagro SA (AGRO) CEO Mariano Bosch on Q3 2018 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Historical Performance:

Over the last five trading days, AGRO shares returned 0.58% and in the past 30 trading days it returned -13.72%. Over three months, it changed -16.51%. In one year it has changed -27.59% and within that year its 52-week high was 10.63 and its 52-week low was 6.73. AGRO stock is 3.71% above its 52 Week Low.

Our calculations result in a 200 day moving average of 7.99 and a 50 day moving average of 7.51. Right now, AGRO stock is trading -12.65% below its 200 day moving average and may not be a great opportunity to buy as it may continue to trend down.

SeekingAlpha:  Adecoagro S.A. 2018 Q3 – Results – Earnings Call Slides

Liquidity:

The company has a market cap of $813.6m with 116.6m shares outstanding and a float of 116.6m shares. Trading volume was 316,504 shares and has experienced an average volume of 469,693 shares. Our calculation, using the current average volume and close price, leads me to believe that the liquidity is bad, highly speculative and an investor may want to avoid this stock.

Earnings:

The last annual reported EPS for Adecoagro S.A. was 0.08 which ended on 31st of December 2017, which according to the previous close, that is a PE of 87.25. The trailing twelve month EPS is 0.99, which comes to a trailing twelve month PE of 7.05.

Below was the last reported quarterly earnings per share:
09-30-2018:  0.12
06-30-2018:  0.77
03-31-2018:  0.06
12-31-2017:  0.04

Base on our calculations, the intrinsic value per share is 14.82, which means it might be undervalued and has a margin of safety of 52.89%



Indicators Also to Watch:

Based on the latest filings, there is 56.70% of institutional ownership. Short-interest was 1,362,519, which was 1.17% of shares outstanding. The short-interest ratio or days-to-cover ratio was 3.36. This stock has some short interest, but it might be normal and no need to worry if long the position.

I calculated the beta to be 0.71

SeekingAlpha:  Adecoagro S.A. 2018 Q3 – Results – Earnings Call Slides

Fundamental Numbers:

Based on last reported financials, the company’s return on equity is -2.15%, return on assets is -0.89%, profit margin is -1.91%, price-to-sales is 0.93 and price-to-book is 0.80.

Company Score Card:

Results are out of six:
 3  : Growth Expectations Result
 3  : Financial Safety Result
 0  : Past Performance Result
 3  : Valuation Result
 1  : Dividend Safety Result
 2  : Overall Result

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Jake McWilliams
I am an independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked both for the sell side (brokerage) and the buy side (fund administration). I have been trading professionally for about 20 years. I trade stocks and forex and I play both long and short positions in underlying asset or through options. I have experience with discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader and Quantshare).

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