The growth of the EPS is critical in understanding the current valuation of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage. The EPS growth rate, as it is typically called, is usually expressed as a percentage, which at this time is hard to estimate, but revenue growth has been 10.70 % over the last twelve months. Growth in EPS is an important measure of administration performance because it shows how much money Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage is making for it’s investors or shareholders.



Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage trades as part of the consumer defensive sector and trades as part of the retail defensive industry. The company CEO is Zephyr Isely / Kemper Isely. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is a specialty retailer of natural, organic groceries and dietary supplements.

Previous Intraday Performance:

The NGVC shares had a previous change of 1.00% which opened at 18.16 and closed at 18.18. It moved to an intraday high of 18.35 and a low of 17.80.

PR Newswire:  Natural Grocers predicts the top 10 hottest nutrition trends in 2019

Historical Performance:

Over the last five trading days, NGVC shares returned 1.22% and in the past 30 trading days it returned -0.98%. Over three months, it changed -0.16%. In one year it has changed 118.51% and within that year its 52-week high was 24.50 and its 52-week low was 6.18. NGVC stock is 194.17% above its 52 Week Low.

Our calculations result in a 200 day moving average of 13.60 and a 50 day moving average of 17.85. Right now, NGVC stock is trading 33.70% above its 200 day moving average.

PR Newswire:  Natural Grocers predicts the top 10 hottest nutrition trends in 2019

Liquidity:

The company has a market cap of $407.1m with 22.4m shares outstanding and a float of 13.8m shares. Trading volume was 113,022 shares and has experienced an average volume of 229,782 shares. Our calculation, using the current average volume and close price, leads me to believe that the liquidity is bad, highly speculative and an investor may want to avoid this stock.

Earnings:

The last annual reported EPS for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage was 0.56 which ended on 30th of September 2018, which according to the previous close, that is a PE of 32.46. Based on 1 analyst estimate, the estimated EPS for the next quarter is 0.02. The trailing twelve month EPS is 0.34, which comes to a trailing twelve month PE of 53.47. Historically, the PE high was 94.90 and the PE low was 10.40. If the stock reached its PE low, that would represent a price of 3.54, which is a decrease of -80.55%.

Below was the last reported quarterly earnings per share:
09-30-2018:  0.09
06-30-2018:  0.09
03-31-2018:  0.15
12-31-2017:  0.04



Base on our calculations, the intrinsic value per share is 26.54, which means it might be undervalued and has a margin of safety of 31.50%

Indicators Also to Watch:

Based on the latest filings, there is 38.60% of insider ownership and 53.30% of institutional ownership. Short-interest was 1,767,660, which was 7.89% of shares outstanding. The short-interest ratio or days-to-cover ratio was 13.15. This stock has a moderate level of short interest, but may still be a buying opportunity depending on other indicators.

I calculated the beta to be 1.11

Business Wire:  Dr. Reddy’s announces the launch of over-the-counter store brand equivalent of Prilosec OTC® (Omeprazole Delayed-Release) Tablets, 20 mg in the U.S. Market

Fundamental Numbers:

Based on last reported financials, the company’s return on equity is 9.02%, return on assets is 4.17%, profit margin is 1.49%, price-to-sales is 0.47 and price-to-book is 2.64.

Company Score Card:

Results are out of six:
 0  : Growth Expectations Result
 5  : Financial Safety Result
 2  : Past Performance Result
 1  : Valuation Result
 0  : Dividend Safety Result
 2  : Overall Result

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Jake McWilliams
I am an independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked both for the sell side (brokerage) and the buy side (fund administration). I have been trading professionally for about 20 years. I trade stocks and forex and I play both long and short positions in underlying asset or through options. I have experience with discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader and Quantshare).

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