The growth of the EPS is critical in understanding the current valuation of Heritage Insurance. The EPS growth rate, as it is usually called, is typically displayed as a percentage, which at this time is hard to estimate, but revenue growth has been 25.50 % over the last twelve months. Growth in EPS is an important measure of administration performance because it shows how much money Heritage Insurance is making for it’s investors or shareholders.



Heritage Insurance is part of the financial services sector and trades as part of the property and casualty insurance industry. The company CEO is Bruce Lucas. Heritage Insurance Inc is a property and casualty insurance holding company. The company provides personal residential insurance for single-family homeowners and condominium owners, rental property insurance and commercial residential insurance.

Previous Intraday Performance:

The HRTG shares had a previous change of -4.84% which opened at 15.65 and closed at 14.95. It moved to an intraday high of 15.65 and a low of 14.84.

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Historical Performance:

Over the last five trading days, HRTG shares returned -7.43% and in the past 30 trading days it returned 10.74%. Over three months, it changed 1.70%. In one year it has changed -13.81% and within that year its 52-week high was 19.15 and its 52-week low was 12.85. HRTG stock is 16.34% above its 52 Week Low.

Our calculations result in a 200 day moving average of 15.88 and a 50 day moving average of 14.94. Right now, HRTG stock is trading -5.83% below its 200 day moving average and may not be a great opportunity to buy as it may continue to trend down.

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Liquidity:

The company has a market cap of $397.7m with 26.6m shares outstanding and a float of 23.5m shares. Trading volume was 126,591 shares and has experienced an average volume of 174,099 shares. Our calculation, using the current average volume and close price, leads me to believe that the liquidity is bad, highly speculative and an investor may want to avoid this stock.

Earnings:

The last annual reported EPS for Heritage Insurance was -0.08 which ended on 31st of December 2017. Based on 1 analyst estimate, the estimated EPS for the next quarter is -0.13. The trailing twelve month EPS is 2.10, which comes to a trailing twelve month PE of 7.12.

Below was the last reported quarterly earnings per share:
09-30-2018:  0.23
06-30-2018:  0.09
03-31-2018:  0.55
12-31-2017:  1.23



The dividend per share is currently 0.24, which is a dividend yield of 1.61%. Also, the payout ratio is 11.43%, therefore the dividend is safe according to our calculations.

Base on our calculations, the intrinsic value per share is 14.14, which means it might overvalued by -5.71%

Indicators Also to Watch:

Based on the latest filings, there is 43.90% of institutional ownership. Short-interest was 3,674,515, which was 13.81% of shares outstanding. The short-interest ratio or days-to-cover ratio was 20.55. This stock has a moderate level of short interest, but may still be a buying opportunity depending on other indicators.

I calculated the beta to be 1.22

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Fundamental Numbers:

Based on last reported financials, the company’s return on equity is 5.28%, return on assets is 1.07%, profit margin is 3.84%, price-to-sales is 0.90 and price-to-book is 1.07.

Company Score Card:

Results are out of six:
 4  : Growth Expectations Result
 3  : Financial Safety Result
 2  : Past Performance Result
 2  : Valuation Result
 3  : Dividend Safety Result
 2  : Overall Result

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Jake McWilliams
I am an independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked both for the sell side (brokerage) and the buy side (fund administration). I have been trading professionally for about 20 years. I trade stocks and forex and I play both long and short positions in underlying asset or through options. I have experience with discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader and Quantshare).

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